In January 2018, the Guangdong Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 53.0, up 1 from the previous month.2 percentage points (see chart 1)。From the perspective of the international environment, the global manufacturing industry has developed well since the second half of 2017, and the global PMI index has continued to climb for half a year, and the global PMI index (released by jpmorgan Chase) was 54 in December last year.5;The PMI index of major manufacturing countries is running at a relatively high level in the region, such as the PMI index of the United States (ISM release) is 59.7, Japan PMI index (Nikkei release) at 54.The eurozone PMI index (published by Markit) was 60.6。From the perspective of the domestic environment, the manufacturing PMI index released by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2017 basically remained at 51.0-52.0, stable operation。Integrated with the external market warming and the internal environment stabilizing, the industrial economy of our province has a solid foundation and steady progress。However, considering the rapid short-term appreciation of the RMB and the impact of the new tax reform policy promulgated by the Trump administration in the United States, short-term downside risks should be vigilant。The details are as follows:
The production index (volume of production) is 55.0, up 2 from the previous month.0 percent。The new orders index (product orders) was 54.1, up 0 from the previous month.Six percentage points。The production and sales index has risen and maintained a high match since the second half of last year, indicating that the industrial economic foundation has been consolidated。
The raw materials inventory index was 50.7, up 0. 0 from the previous month.One percentage point。The raw materials inventory index remained at 50 for half a year.0 growth line, business confidence increased。
The employment index (production and operation personnel) was 52.1, up 1 from the previous month.Seven percentage points。The employment of enterprises has picked up, indicating that the industrial economy is improving。
The supplier delivery time index is 50.2, up 1 from the previous month.One percentage point。Supplier delivery times slow down。
Table Table of major sub-indexes of manufacturing PMI of Guangdong Province from January 2017 to January 2018
In January 2018, the Guangdong Electronics and information industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 57.8, up 9 from the previous month.0 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for electrical machinery and special equipment was 53.8, down 1 point from the previous month.2 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the food and beverage sector was 57.1, up 5 from the previous month.Eight percentage points;The purchasing Managers' index (PMI) for the textile and garment industry was 52.8, up 5 from the previous month.Three percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for petroleum and chemicals was 53.9, up 5 from the previous month.0 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for auto manufacturing was 54.1, up 2 from the previous month.0 percentage points;The pharmaceutical manufacturing purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 59.3, down 2 from the previous month.1 percentage point;The Forest paper purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 52.3, up 3 from the previous month.Nine percentage points。
Expert interpretation
Chen Hongyu, a special expert in the interpretation of the provincial PMI index and a professor at the Party School of the Provincial Party Committee, believes that the PMI index of our province was 53 in January 2018.0, the 23rd consecutive month on the line。Of the five weighted indices that directly determine the PMI index, the production index and the new orders index are 55 respectively.0和54.1, continue to maintain high coordination of production and sales。Indicators of new orders, new export orders, backlogged orders and import orders, which reflect the state of domestic and external demand in the manufacturing sector, are all on the line of growth and contraction。It is worth noting that the employment index has climbed to 52 this month.1, the highest level in 32 months since April 2015。The above situation shows that the manufacturing industry in our province has made progress in stability, and the situation of seeking good stability is more stable, the market expectations of enterprises are more optimistic, production activities and procurement activities are more active, and the jobs created are also increasing。
Chen Hongyu thinks，Over the past year, the PMI index of our province's manufacturing industry has basically maintained a stable expansion range of 51 to 52，The main reason lies in，Our province insists on the focus of economic development on the real economy based on the manufacturing industry，In the innovation-driven strategy and the "real economy ten" support，The industrial economy is picking up across the board，It has consolidated the foundation of our province's economic development from high-speed growth to high-quality development，The main indicators of Guangdong's economic operation in 2017 were better than expected。
Chen Hongyu pointed out that in January, the PMI index of all major industries in our province rebounded comprehensively, but the inventory index of finished goods and the backlog of orders index have declined slightly from the previous month, and the logistics supply distribution time has also begun to slow down。After the intense pre-holiday work of enterprises has come to an end this month, festival factors may have an impact on the trend of the PMI index in February, but the overall trend of seeking improvement will not change much。In order to accelerate the construction of a strong manufacturing province, Chen Hongyu suggested that, first, continue to adhere to innovation-driven efforts to find a path for the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy in our province。The second is to increase support for the technological transformation of traditional industries, and take the transformation and upgrading of traditional manufacturing as an important starting point to remove ineffective and inefficient production capacity。The third is to take resolute measures to effectively reduce the institutional transaction costs, tax costs, and factor costs of manufacturing enterprises, implement various policies to protect property rights, and stimulate the internal vitality of manufacturing enterprises。
(Contributed by Asia-Pacific Economic Index Research Center, Guangdong Modern Logistics Research Institute, Operations Monitoring Division)