In December 2017, the Guangdong manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 51.8, down 2 from the previous month.0 percentage points (see Figure 1)。The fall in the index this month was mainly due to the high correction of the index in November, and the PMI index in December returned to the average level of the whole year。Judging from the operation of the annual index, the manufacturing PMI index of our province has basically remained at 51 this year (except for November).0—52.The operation within the 0 range indicates that the industrial economy is growing steadily, and the foundation of growth is further consolidated。The details are as follows:
Figure 1 Trend chart of manufacturing PMI in Guangdong Province from January 2013 to December 2017
The production index (volume of production) is 53.0, down 5 from the previous month.0 percent。The new orders index (product orders) was 53.5, down 2 from the previous month.Two percentage points。The high matching of production and sales index indicates that the industrial economic foundation has been consolidated。Among them, affected by the expected impact of the US tax reform, the new export orders index was 50.1, down 4 from the previous month.0 percentage points, the next step needs to pay close attention to the change in export orders。
The raw materials inventory index was 50.6, down 1 from the previous month.Two percentage points。Since August, the raw material inventory index has been at 50.0 growth line, business confidence increased。
The employment index (production and operation personnel) was 50.4, unchanged from the previous month。In recent months, the employment index has fluctuated slightly above and below the line of growth and contraction, and the employment of enterprises has been stable。
The supplier delivery time index is 49.1, up 0 from the previous month.Two percentage points。Supplier delivery times have slowed slightly。
Figure 2 Trend chart of sub-index of manufacturing PMI in Guangdong Province from January 2013 to December 2017
Table Table of major sub-indexes of manufacturing PMI of Guangdong Province from December 2016 to December 2017
In December 2017, the Guangdong Electronics and information industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 48.8, down 4 from the previous month.7 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for electrical machinery and special equipment was 55.0, down 0 from the previous month.Four percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the food and beverage sector was 51.3, up 2 from the previous month.7 percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the textile and garment industry is 47.5, down 1 from the previous month.1 percentage point;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for petroleum and chemicals was 48.9, down 4 from the previous month.Three percentage points;The purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for auto manufacturing was 52.1, down 6 from the previous month.Three percentage points;The pharmaceutical manufacturing purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 61.4, up 7 from the previous month.6 percentage points;The Forest paper purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is 48.4, up 2 from the previous month.Five percentage points。
Expert interpretation
Chen Hongyu, a professor at the Party School of the Provincial Party Committee and a special expert on the interpretation of the provincial PMI index, believes that the provincial PMI index was 51 in December 2017.8, the 22nd consecutive month on the line。Of the five weight indexes that directly determine the PMI index, except for the distribution index, which is slightly below the boom and contraction line, the remaining four continue to be above the boom and contraction line。The production index and the new orders index climbed for many months in a row, on the basis of this month's 53.0和53.5, once again a high level of production and sales balance。Since this year, indicators such as domestic sales of industrial products in our province, benefits of industrial enterprises and investment in technological transformation of industrial enterprises have been significantly accelerated, which indicates that the expansion momentum of the manufacturing industry in our province will continue to be maintained, and lay a solid foundation for the steady development of next year。
Chen Hongyu pointed out that the December production index fell sharply from the previous month.0 percentage points, is the PMI index fell 2.A major factor of 0 percent。This month, the province's manufacturing purchasing volume, raw material prices, finished goods inventory and imports of the four sub-indexes also declined, indicating that our province's strong expansion of manufacturing in November reached the peak, this month the potential of enterprises to expand production has been exert。This Chen Hongyu thinks，Appropriate stabilization of the production index and related sub-indices，It is beneficial to prevent the PMI index from wild swings，However, the growth rate of industrial investment in our province is not high this year，The proportion of industrial investment in fixed asset investment in some large manufacturing markets is low，It may affect the growth rate and structural transformation of the manufacturing industry，We must also pay attention to the macro aspects。
Chen Hongyu suggested that in the New Year, we should continue to adhere to high-quality development as the goal, one is to fully implement our province's "real economy ten", and build a good environment for the development of manufacturing。Second, we must firmly grasp the weak link of the slowing growth of industrial investment, identify the causes, take concrete measures to increase the growth rate and quality of investment, expand effective investment, and promote the steady growth of industrial investment。The third is to further enhance the confidence and willingness of private manufacturing industry to develop, strengthen the connection between banks and enterprises, and the connection between banks and localities, and concentrate on solving the development bottlenecks such as land use and financing for manufacturing enterprises。
(Contributed by Asia-Pacific Economic Index Research Center, Guangdong Modern Logistics Research Institute, Operations Monitoring Division)